If India drops its proposal of having the General Assembly consider a slate of two or more candidates, then the next Secretary-General will be chosen by the 15 countries who are members of the Security Council.
Members likely to back Tharoor from the start: France, Greece
Members who may be induced to back him if India lobbies hard: Argentina, Britain, Congo-Brazaville, Ghana, Peru, Qatar, Russia, Tanzania
Members whom India can induce not to use the veto: China, United States
Others: Denmark, Japan, Slovakia