tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13437119.post94742853349342790..comments2024-03-01T13:51:47.721+05:30Comments on Reality, one bite at a time: Nuclear update: 123 @ House of RepresentativesSiddharth Varadarajanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07721228307097170092noreply@blogger.comBlogger19125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13437119.post-15418920079239540542008-09-30T09:36:00.000+05:302008-09-30T09:36:00.000+05:30@ nidhi, srinivas ramaniI think you are right to c...@ nidhi, srinivas ramani<BR/><BR/>I think you are right to caution against underestimating the power of "love".....Siddharth Varadarajanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07721228307097170092noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13437119.post-37980843421396367582008-09-30T09:34:00.000+05:302008-09-30T09:34:00.000+05:30@ anonymousThanks for the Buffet links. I think we...@ anonymous<BR/><BR/>Thanks for the Buffet links. I think we need to pay more attention to understanding the political economy of the global nuclear energy industry as it evolves in the next decade. Do not be surprised if you see as much "outbound" action from India as "inbound", in terms of reactor sales. Indian vendors like L&T are very keen to get a slice of the global reactor construction boom and there will be strategic tie-ups with Hitachi, perhaps the Canadians... The entry of Buffet suggests there will be some more churning in response to the new opportunities.<BR/><BR/>But I remain sceptical about the possibility of US reactor sales to India. Assuming the Senate passes the 123 on Wednesday Oct 1 and Bush signs a statement that strips away some of the rubbish that's been tagged on, the GOI might well sign the 123 when Condi is in Delhi Oct 3, with or without the statement I have been advocating. But for US reactors to come, three things have to happen.<BR/>1. India has to deliver on its commitment to Washington on accession to the Vienna Convention on supplementary nuclear damages; 2. India and the U.S. have to negotiate the arrangements and procedures on reprocessing; and 3. fuel supply arrangements have to be put in place. <BR/><BR/>Expect a minimum of three years for these steps to be completed, especially 2.<BR/><BR/>Even then, chances are US reactors will not be competitive, or will come with so many additional restrictions (compared to Russian and French ones) that DAE will not really want to buy them.Siddharth Varadarajanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07721228307097170092noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13437119.post-54576872374742971662008-09-30T09:26:00.000+05:302008-09-30T09:26:00.000+05:30@ Jayaram, dhavaladharaI think the CTBT scenario i...@ Jayaram, dhavaladhara<BR/><BR/>I think the CTBT scenario is looking a little unlikely right now from where I am sitting (in New York City) even with an Obama victory. I will come back with a fuller analysis of the CTBT issue but in general I endorse dhavaladhara's line on getting more aggressive on the disarmament agenda, both in the First Committee and the Conference on Disarmament. Having fought with the group of 6 over the NSg waiver, for example, there is no reason why we should not push them to support us in implementing the disarmament part of the EAM's September 5 statement....Siddharth Varadarajanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07721228307097170092noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13437119.post-62576700845305302752008-09-30T09:21:00.000+05:302008-09-30T09:21:00.000+05:30@ JayaramanThe sense I am getting from having inte...@ Jayaraman<BR/><BR/>The sense I am getting from having interacted with both the bureaucratic and political side is that the PROFESSIONAL advice of the MEA/IFS types is to desist from signing without a strong national statement and then go further and not buy anything from Unkil. But the political side of the PMO, and especially Dr. Singh himself, seem very committed to a course of action closer to 1 or a soft version of 2. <BR/><BR/>The issue, however, is not just about the terms of commerce with the U.S. If you simply accept the American reinterpretation, there is some sense in which you will weaken your hand vis-a-vis other suppliers.Siddharth Varadarajanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07721228307097170092noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13437119.post-56396139692441343252008-09-30T03:51:00.000+05:302008-09-30T03:51:00.000+05:30I think India should wait to operationalize this d...I think India should wait to operationalize this deal till US elections are over. If Obama is going to be the president then there is a very good chance that US will ratify CTBT and China will follow suite in 10 minutes. That leaves India which anyway will have to sign the treaty and Pakistan/Isreal follows India in 10 minutes in signing/ratifying!<BR/><BR/>With this it almost becomes certain that no country can test and the chance of India testing is next to nothing. Lets call the above scnario 1. After CTBT comes into effect the only country which can break that - is US. If that happens (less likely) the international nuclear order disappears and every big country will have 5 small nuclear powers as their neighbours. This is Scenario 2. I think either of these scenarios help India (Other than the fact that - in case five of India's neighbours are nuclear) looking from the perspective of the fuel. In the first scenario there is no question of any country testing and the nuclear order gets frozen in the same order as it exists today. Its as if all of us are running a race and the results are frozen at some point of time after the race starts. This obviously helps the top (ten or so) countries (India included) and the commerce/civil part of the nuclear equation keeps strenghthening.<BR/>In Scenario 2, the world (if continues to exist) will soon move towards a nuclear disarmament (The pressure for this will have to come from countries in Europe and India) which in turn strenghthens the commerce/civil part of the nuclear equation.<BR/><BR/>Sid, please let me know your thoughts on this.<BR/><BR/>Thank you,<BR/>JayaramAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13437119.post-568816550984925532008-09-29T21:22:00.000+05:302008-09-29T21:22:00.000+05:30simply roll over and sign and express our deep lov...simply roll over and sign and express our deep love once again and comeback; the historic waiver will do the rest of magic!! <BR/><BR/>[sorry; i'm still not ready to accept it is historic. it has to seen in real world context... i'm still not ready to accept it is historic. it has to seen in real world context... ideally we can go for other countries and gain the n-power; but it completely restricted our movement.]<BR/><BR/>Regards,Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13437119.post-69946042006963781782008-09-29T14:20:00.000+05:302008-09-29T14:20:00.000+05:30Lets see. My guess is they may simply roll over a...Lets see. My guess is they may simply roll over and sign though they should say thanks but no thanks; though option two seems possible, but then its not "legally binding"! <BR/><BR/>but who cares about legalise when "deep love" is the guiding forceAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13437119.post-59556095344358891972008-09-29T12:46:00.000+05:302008-09-29T12:46:00.000+05:30From the "Indian" point of view, a point of view w...From the "Indian" point of view, a point of view which is dying to see India emerge as a legitimate and great "nuclear power" on the world scene, to the utter detriment of prospects for global nuclear disarmament, with the express blessings of the world super-power, because it does not stand any chance otherwise, the sensible option would be to go in for the second, in the immediate term, with no actual orders to follow (on US firms) unless the doubts and uncertainties are cleared. Such clearing of doubts is of course unlikely to happen.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13437119.post-56175068889526543212008-09-29T11:19:00.000+05:302008-09-29T11:19:00.000+05:30The Indo-US agreement is like a double edged sword...The Indo-US agreement is like a double edged sword – use it very cautiously to your advantage –only when you absolutely need it; use it cavalierly and you are chopping yourself up! <BR/><BR/>This is what the govt. must do –<BR/><BR/>• Sign the agreement with a national statement conveying our interpretation of the whole agreement package i.e 123 deal, NSG waiver, IAEA agreement.<BR/><BR/>• Pass a national law stating our sovereign rights. Parliament must pass a law that any nuclear commerce with India must be on the sole basis of – assured fuel supplies for the life time of the reactor; any right to recall exercised by the supplier can be exercised only after paying high penalties that should act as deterrent in exercising that right; rights for reprocessing of fuel should be permanent or if the right is recalled, then supplier has to pay for the return shipment i.e India will not be sitting on the spent fuel sans reprocessing for ages, a la Tarapur.<BR/><BR/>• Formulate a national policy that Indian dependence on foreign reactors to be strictly followed by taking the accompanying vulnerability into account. It should be our national policy that indigenous civil nuclear R&D be strengthened to reach global levels. Local Offset clauses must be included similar to the defence deals.<BR/><BR/>By taking these steps, current and future Indian negotiations will be strengthened considerably and the chances for political subversion are minimized. The US plan is to make India dependent on it strategically ( US presidential statement is required annually stating that India is behaving like a good boy!). Indian strategy ought to be -- NOT to be dependent on the US.<BR/><BR/>Should the US/international suppliers balk at supplying us with these protective steps, we are no worse than we currently are… and we would have only gained in stature by the international spotlight on this whole process. And as the world understands that we are in no tearing hurry to buy the expensive nuclear power at international pressure, and as the world adjusts to the new economically resurgent nuclear India, it will be more amenable to facilitate a more benign nuclear commerce. <BR/><BR/>Meanwhile India needs to refocus on its idealistic position .... and immediately announce after signing the 123 pact, an international conference of nuclear powers to force these powers to agree on 1. No first use of nuclear weapons 2. No use of nuclear weapons on non-nuclear contries and 3. No active targeting of nuclear weapons. This will effectively shut the mouths of the non-proliferation ayatollahs whose rabid opposition to this entire process is a major surprise… when they themselves have done nothing in all these years to achieve these simple 1,2,3 steps above mentioned…. whereas India has announced these steps unilaterally and in good faith which they have totally ignored.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13437119.post-67832936823539488872008-09-29T09:44:00.000+05:302008-09-29T09:44:00.000+05:30Well.. the deal is effectively signed with all the...Well.. the deal is effectively signed with all these caveats. The signature was delivered with the nincompoopish statement made by our venerable Prime Minister that 'India loves George Bush'.Srinivasan Ramanihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13620263203764236450noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13437119.post-55843172135138603532008-09-29T08:48:00.000+05:302008-09-29T08:48:00.000+05:30I must say I have been a bit confused as to why th...I must say I have been a bit confused as to why the Indian Govt has kept its mouth shut as the US has been changing the deal. I wondered if the Congress was actually dealing with the 123 agreement or something else... but it couldn't be something else!<BR/><BR/>Perhaps they believed that it would never go through in Obama or McCain land. Or perhaps they don't plan to buy anything except from France or Russia. Or perhaps we are so low on Uranium supplies that we're ready to do anything.<BR/><BR/>But with ManMohan already celebrating, I think we will roll over and sign. It will be left to the BJP (deja vu) to set things right. In 1995, Rao rolled over when told not to test, in 1998 the BJP did test and that opened all these doors.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13437119.post-86526871530816121822008-09-29T08:18:00.000+05:302008-09-29T08:18:00.000+05:30The lady fat or otherwise has not yet sung on this...The lady fat or otherwise has not yet sung on this issue. Wait till the senate vote and the presidential signing statement and then take a call. Also the Indo-French agreement would give a preview of US power to influence others in NSG.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13437119.post-18974027153989912382008-09-29T07:58:00.000+05:302008-09-29T07:58:00.000+05:30Dear Siddharth, It is not a question of what we wo...Dear Siddharth, It is not a question of what we would like but what is most likely to happen. The first option is what will happen. However the govt. may try to make it look like the second in Parliament or in the media, by issuing some vague remarks that are of no substantive value.<BR/><BR/>Regards,<BR/>Jayaraman.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13437119.post-12171924379402546832008-09-29T07:11:00.000+05:302008-09-29T07:11:00.000+05:30As an aside - with the famed Warren Buffet buying ...As an aside - with the famed <A HREF="http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/26/buffetts-constellation-deal-said-to-worry-nuclear-firms/" REL="nofollow">Warren Buffet buying Constellation energy group</A> there is a lot of uncertainity in the US nuclear industry. The WSJ article on this issue can be found here <A HREF="http://www.energyinvestmentstrategies.com/2008/09/26/buffet-will-decide-if-nuclear-has-a-future/" REL="nofollow">Buffett Could Reshape Nuclear Power Industry</A><BR/>I guess India has a chance to play a role in reviving the American nuclear industry but does US have the financial werewithal ? <BR/>Interesting to note is that the French involvement (EDF, Areva) in the US nuclear business is now going to be controlled partly by Buffet.<BR/>So I guess US-India deal is spurring a lot of action !Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13437119.post-60824223406215211532008-09-29T06:38:00.000+05:302008-09-29T06:38:00.000+05:30I am in favour of option (2) sign it with strong r...I am in favour of option (2) sign it with strong repudiation of India's interests involving the following -<BR/><BR/>decoupling other foreign policy issues with "civilian" nuclear business<BR/><BR/>without reprocessing/enrichment in a safeguarded facility there is no point in buying just fuel...what are you going to do with waste accumulated ? send it back to supplier country or reprocess it ?<BR/><BR/>clearcut assurances and clarifications on the fuel supply assurances and continuity. what kinds of disruptions that India will have to face even without nuclear tests ?<BR/><BR/>clarifying high-end technology denials (including reprocessing/enrichments )in the nuclear sector under the bogey of ambiguous phrases like "limited", "sensitive"<BR/><BR/>money back guarantees in case of any return of items/fuel conditions in the event of nuclear test or due to other causes.<BR/><BR/>clearcut multilateral mechanism to address fuel supply cutoffs or agreement breakdowns and not some ad-hocs sanctions on a consumer.<BR/><BR/>participation and establishment of high-end R&D and education sector of nuclear industry and not just "buying" from US companies.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13437119.post-36438487086875032892008-09-29T03:08:00.000+05:302008-09-29T03:08:00.000+05:30Thank Condi and Bush profusely for all their effor...Thank Condi and Bush profusely for all their efforts on our behalf.<BR/><BR/>Advise Condi very sweetly that we need time to study all the implications of this "new" bill and its addl clauses -- whatever happened to the up/down vote on 123 with no changes accepted? -- and build domestic consensus before signing. We will let her know when we are ready to sign.<BR/><BR/>This 123 should be signed - if at all - by the next GoI, after our Jekyll Act is in place, and at the very least with an arbitration clause similar to the one in the US-Japan 123 added.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13437119.post-58640546383452122072008-09-28T23:44:00.000+05:302008-09-28T23:44:00.000+05:30Thanks but no Thanks!This will be a great tragedy,...Thanks but no Thanks!<BR/><BR/>This will be a great tragedy, we cannot trust any treaty with white guys, ask the Indians(any). In few years we will be in a position like Iran, crying around we have right for whatever, and everybody following US lead will turn against us. And, i do not forsee India producing leaders with balls to defy (even to the level of Ahmedinejad) international hostility, better not get ourselves stuck by sigining any deal(?).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13437119.post-41910221389140893262008-09-28T23:05:00.000+05:302008-09-28T23:05:00.000+05:30India needs to pass its own counter-response to th...India needs to pass its own counter-response to the Hyde Act, requiring govt to make it a national policy to preserve its right to test nuclear weapons, and that this should supercede any international treaties signed.sanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11939342428337531046noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13437119.post-61970936608845654542008-09-28T17:57:00.000+05:302008-09-28T17:57:00.000+05:30siddharth After a lot of cotroversies, this ...siddharth <BR/> After a lot of cotroversies, this agreement will be finally brought before the Indian government to get signed.The second option(you proposed) will and should be followed but the government should issue a white paper explining for final time its commitment and obligation in detail and in clear terms,before signing the agreement and also publicize the same.So that in future if any confusion arises this document can be refered back to.रामाधारhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07218151308661079163noreply@blogger.com