Beyond the Ceasefire: Move quickly on the political front

30 December 2000
The Times of India

Beyond the Ceasefire
Move Quickly on the Political Front

By SIDDHARTH VARADARAJAN

BOLD and innovative though it is, the Indian government's unilateral ceasefire is floundering on the mistaken assumption that Kashmir is primarily-if not exclusively-a military problem.

For the past 10 years, New Delhi has essentially pursued an armed solution to the problem in the state. When it found that this solution was not yielding quick-or even satisfactory-results on the ground, the political decision was taken to alter its form. The Ramzan ceasefire
announced by Prime Minister Vajpayee may now have stretched into a second month but what it represents, in essence, is a change of battlefield tactics. There has been no political initiative of comparable magnanimity. Granting some Hurriyat leaders-who are all Indian citizens-passports that should never have been denied them in the first place can hardly count as a concession.

Though there has been some back-channel engagement with the Hurriyat and with elements of the Hizbul Mujahideen, the government is still quite far away from conceiving a broad political framework within which the Kashmir problem can peacefully be resolved. We are not talking about an endgame here-whether Kashmir will remain an integral part of India forever, join
Pakistan or go independent-or even about the willingness of militant groups to `talk about talks'. What is needed is for New Delhi to recognise that there are concrete political steps it can take to alter the parameters of the problem.

Without a quick move on the political front, the government might be forced to return to the battlefield. It is clear by now that the ceasefire has led to a quantitative and qualitative escalation in militant attacks. Whether this is the product of the security forces having relaxed their grip or of militant groups anxious to demonstrate their contempt for the ceasefire is immaterial. In the absence of tangible political gains on the ground, public opinion, political parties and even the security forces are bound eventually to seek a revocation of the ceasefire.

Fortunately for the government, the security forces do not have a uniform view on the matter. If some commanders argue that a ceasefire allows militant groups to recoup and position themselves for future attacks, others believe that a hands-off policy weakens the insurgency both physically and psychologically, `softening' the homegrown militant and distancing him from the foreign mujahids. Nonetheless, the consensus seem to be that military means alone cannot solve the problem. This view was explicitly stated by Army chief Padmanabhan shortly after he took over in October this year.

But it is one thing to say that military means alone cannot solve the problem and another to admit that the manner in which the military solution was pursued in the past has contributed to the intractability of the problem. Thanks to a more enlightened approach, there have few major
incidents of human rights violations in recent months. Even so, the previous incidents-the killing of civilians in Bijbehara and Sopore, the disappearances-are like open wounds that continue to fester with each passing day that the guilty go unpunished.

Rightly or wrongly, the majority of Kashmiris in the valley see the Indian security forces as an occupying power on whom no laws or rules of engagement apply. Though the Army has moved to court-martial soldiers in some cases, the vast majority of rights violations by the security forces go uninvestigated. The National Human Rights Commission is denied jurisdiction and the judicial system has become a helpless spectator.

The most recent example was what happened at Pathribal-Panchalthan this year. After fierce protests in which unarmed civilians were fired upon and killed at Brakpora on April 3, the government agreed to exhume the bodies of five persons it claimed were militants responsible for the Chittisingpora massacre in March this year. All five bodies were claimed
by relatives and DNA samples were sent for testing. But as yet, there has been no move to try for murder in an open court those who were responsible for the fake encounter.

If the government wants to give an impetus to its ceasefire, it should make Pathribal a test case of its sincerity. A swift and transparent trial followed by exemplary punishment of the guilty would go some distance towards convincing Kashmiris that there is rule of law in this country.

Second, the government should realise that its policy of denying passports to Kashmiri leaders is not only illiberal and undemocratic but politically counter-productive as well. The government's view is that the Hurriyat Conference is a puppet of Pakistan. If that is so, the fact that
the Hurriyat leaders lack passports has clearly not been a hindrance for the puppet-master. New Delhi's decision to allow several Hurriyat leaders to travel to Pakistan is perhaps a belated recognition of this fact; even so, its reported refusal to grant the most pro-Pakistani leader of them all, Syed Ali Shah Geelani, a passport smacks of bureaucratic myopia.

Third, New Delhi should make it unambiguously clear that its invitation for talks is completely without any riders or conditions. The government's initial response to the Hizb's ceasefire offer was a mature one which avoided any mention of the Indian Constitution. But two days later, the
waters were muddied by senior government officials insisting that any dialogue had to be within the four walls of the Constitution. By the time Vajpayee clarified matters, it was too late. Hardline elements within the Pakistani establishment were able to make use of the conflicting
statements to get the Hizb to back off.

On their part, the Hurriyat leaders must also rise to the occasion. When they go to Pakistan, they should ask Gen Musharraf - who recognises them as the authentic voice of Kashmir - to get all the militant groups to agree to a cease-fire and to think about settling their differences with New Delhi across a negotiating table. If Pakistan agrees, a major roadblock in the struggle for a peaceful solution will have been overcome and the path would be clear for Islamabad and New Delhi to also resume their dialogue.

But more than Pakistan or the militants, it is the ordinary Kashmiri that New Delhi needs to convince. Once the Kashmiri starts having faith in the Indian government's initiatives, Islamabad and the jihadis will have to fall in line.

Greek you can understand: Interview with George Papandreou

21 December 2000
The Times of India

A Greek You Can Understand

ATHENS: Greek foreign minister since 1999 and before that alternate minister of foreign affairs from 1996, George A Papandreou has been instrumental in building a higher profile for his country internationally. The son of Andreas Papandreou, former prime minister of Greece - who, along with Indira and Rajiv Gandhi, was part of the Initiative of the Six' for a global reduction of nuclear weapons - he once came to Delhi with his father. On the eve of his first official visit to India, he spoke with Siddharth Varadarajan about a number of international issues that are currently close to both countries:

What is on your agenda during this visit?

Our relations have traditionally been very warm; we must enhance these at all levels - political, economic and financial, and also cultural. We have similar thinking in many areas, which makes it more interesting to work together. As we move into a more globalised economy, political issues of all regions become interconnected. Therefore, issues in our region - the Balkans, Mediterranean, Black Sea - are all of great interest to India. Similarly, India's role in Asia, its relations with its neighbours, are of great interest to us. One other area which is newer is the new technology issues, where India has manpower of a high calibre.

With Bush as US president, do some of the policies that he has been espousing - on missile defence - worry you?

The whole concept of missile defence is something which brings up a number of concerns about the possibility of the creation of a new sense of insecurity in the world. Technological developments might have made this ideal more feasible but the political ramifications are not certain- whether this will create a more secure world or a sense of fear, and escalation of armed productions on the part of other countries. So I think there is some scepticism on these ideas in general, not only in Greece but in Europe as well.

The US claims it must defend itself from the threat of missile attacks from `rogue states'.

The policies of the EU (on missile defence) are conservative. The programme could create greater tension with other countries like Russia. We had similar experiences during the Cold War, where one move provokes another from the other side. We wouldn't want a similar situation now. New missile technology has created new fears - they are more accurate, long range. But how you deal with it - whether you try to create an umbrella which changes the balance of power - is an equally crucial issue because of the possible reaction and escalation from others. In Europe we are developing a regional security situation, of common security rather than a `one against another' kind of concept, and this could break this down as a result.

The US has cautioned the EU on its separate defence initiative. Do you see EU defence plans leading to the downplaying of NATO's centrality and the reduction of US influence in Europe?

I think there will be a new complementarity. We have stressed that this plan is not against anyone. It is to provide greater support for initiatives that Europe can take on its own. But certainly we are seeking the cooperation of the US and other NATO countries who may not be in the EU. In certain areas where we have had problems in our region - Kosovo and the former Yugoslavia, for example - one thing that has provoked this new EU initiative is that the Europeans have been seen as inefficient and unable to deal with crises on their own continent. Secondly, although Greece would not have a problem with a much more rigorous form of EU defence, today we are talking about specific tasks - peacekeeping, crisis management, humanitarian operations. So this EU army of approximately 60,000 soldiers would be for these types of tasks. It would be under the auspices of UN Security Council resolutions and could be deployed in other parts of the world as well.

In purely military terms, if there had been an EU army in place during, say, the Kosovo crisis, would things have been different? Would Yugoslavia still have been bombed? Also, would Greece - which disagreed with NATO strategy - find its concerns again been put on the side?

We would have to go back to how decisions are taken in NATO, but in the EU, the 15 member states have equal say on similar operations irrespective of size. Now, you may find yourself in the majority or minority, or sometimes alone. This happens in the EU with many countries and then you have to make a political decision as to whether you will maintain your position or go along with the majority. On the Kosovo war, we said we had our reservations on the issue of bombing but we did not stop this decision as we were the only country that had these reservations.

If there were a new conflict, Europe would have the ability to make autonomous political decisions. But it would work very closely with its allies outside, especially to use NATO assets. In future, this concept may also grow into a defensive operation for Europe itself, for defending Europe...

From whom? Where is the threat?

Hopefully none, but this may develop.

There is some concern in India about US reports of cooperation between Pakistan and Turkey on the nuclear issue. Is this something which worries Greece?

I have seen reports and articles but have not seen any specific information on the development of these programmes. But as a principle, we are against nuclear proliferation. Secondly, we would not like to see nuclear escalation in this region. Certainly, it would be alarming if one of our neighbours developed this. Now that we are in a period of trying to lower tensions with our neighbours, particularly Turkey, it would have a very negative effect. So we would share India's concerns on any further nuclear proliferation.

Like India and Pakistan, Greece and Turkey are considered implacably hostile neighbours. Yet you have worked hard to improve relations. Are you satisfied with the way Greek-Turkish relations are developing?

In the last year, a new path has been opened. This is a product of the desire of the peoples of both countries. This came out very dramatically during the earthquakes which took place in Turkey last year and then Greece. The response of people was quite moving. A political message came out of the humanitarian response, that people want peace and that the two governments should begin to work together more seriously. There are still quite big problems which remain - Cyprus, for example - but what we have decided to do is build a basis of trust slowly but surely on issues of common interest. We signed 10 accords last year on tourism, environment, culture, etc. That was quite a breakthrough considering it was 14 years after accords were last signed by us. Trade has doubled in one year, so there is a strong economic basis for good relations.

Dateline Athens: The stepping stone where dreams die

10 December 2000
The Times of India

Greece: The stepping stone where dreams die

By Siddharth Varadarajan
The Times of India News Service

ATHENS: For illegal emigrants from India, Pakistan and Bangladesh,
Greece has become the transit point of choice, the haven where one's
energies and finances can be recouped before making that final journey
to the promised land, Canada. Around 80,000 people from South Asia are
said to be in Greece: among them 10,000 Indians, most of whom work on
farms and piggeries.

Though the routes the migrants take vary, the idea is to get as close
to Greece as possible legitimately and then to do what is called
"dunki maarna'', or border jumping. Alternatively, the emigrant
acquires a seaman's book for Rs 30,000, joins a ship at a neighbouring
port as `crew' and then disappears once the ship docks at a Greek port.

In fact, the ship route is now such a well-organised racket that tramp
steamers make all their money transporting human cargo as `crew'.

"Last month,'' says India's Ambassador Gurdip Singh Bedi, "the Greek
authorities brought a shipowner to me who claimed his entire crew of 44
had disappeared. And you know the best part? All of them were Singhs
from Jalandhar!''

The whole operation is best described by Bhupinder, a young man from
Jalandhar. He admits he wasn't very good at geography in school. But
then even the brightest students from India, he says, would never have
heard of Moldova, the former Soviet republic on the edge of the Balkans
from where Bhupi and a band of enterprising Sikhs crossed over into
what they thought was `Europe'.

Though the journey to Moscow and Moldova was smooth, getting to Greece
had been traumatic. ``In Moldova, we destroyed our passports and
crossed into Romania. Our agent was to take us to Germany, instead we
came to Bulgaria. After three weeks, we walked across to Greece but
were caught and sent back to Bulgaria. Then the agent put us on a boat
and we landed in Turkey. Finally, another boat took us to a Greek
island, and then the mainland.'' In all, the journey took four months
and cost Bhupinder Rs 3 lakh.

Three years later, Bhupinder is still in Greece, speaks Greek haltingly
and has acquired work papers. ``But life is no good'', he says. ``I
earn 14 thousand rupees a month in a factory and some money from
selling things on the streets. I am just passing time before I move on
to Canada. I hear one an earn a lot there.''

Lost passports the key to golden future

The key to successful illegal emigration, whether to Greece or
elsewhere in the Balkans before making the final dash to the dream
destination, is to destroy passports and other document that could tie
a person down to the country of his origin, say some who have made it
thus far.

When an illegal immigrant is arrested, the Greek authorities cannot
immediately deport him. They need to establish his nationality, a time-
consuming process. Of the 243 illegal immigrants referred to the Indian
Embassy here by the Greek police this year, only 83 have so far been
authenticated as Indians and deported. ``At least 30 per cent of the
boys intentionally give us wrong information so that we can never
confirm that they are Indians,'' says Indi'a ambassador.

For sheer ingenuity and determination, however, it is hard to beat the
Bangladeshis. ``I moved to Calcutta and then Delhi, working a while in
both cities'', says Monir, a salesman of costume jewellery at a
streetside stall. ``Then I crossed the border into Pakistan through
Punjab and went to Karachi.'' Monir worked as a tailor for two years,
purchasing a Pakistani identity card. ``One of the ladies I stitched
clothes for was married to a top General and he got me visas for Iran
and Turkey.''

From Istambul, Monir came to Greece through the `dunki' route -- taking
a boat across the river that separates Turkey from Greece and then
trekking several days till he was far enough from the border to use
public transport.

In 1998, the Greek government announced an amnesty for those who had
been living in the country for more than two years. The announcement
led to a flood of new arrivals from South Asia. Once in Greece, they
would approach certain police stations and report their passport lost.
Armed with a police receipt, they applied for a duplicate passport and
proceeded to claim they had been living in the country for years. Other
supporting documents such as tax receipts and utility bills were
available for a small fee.

These past few months, with the Greek government on the verge of
announcing another amnesty, the number of arrivals has again increased
dramatically. ``Agents sitting in Jalandhar seem to know more about
immigration policy here than most Greeks,'' says Tito Singh, an Athens-
based journalist. ``It's all amazingly well-planned.''

The Christmas season also traditionally witnesses an increase in
illegal entrants. The reason? ``It's not that the police are more
relaxed,'' says Raja Mohammad, a native of Gujrat in Pakistan. ``Like
others, their expenses also increase during the festive season. They
need the extra earnings that people like us provide''.