Don't Escalate Kargil To All-Out War

18 June 1999
The Times of India

Don't Escalate Kargil To All-Out War

By Siddharth Varadarajan

THREE weeks into what can only be described as a situation perilously close to war, it is imperative that the conflict in Kargil not be allowed to spread any further. Despite both sides reiterating that they have no intention of escalating hostilities, the Army and Air Force in
India and Pakistan have been put on red alert and villagers living close to the border in areas as far afield as Punjab have begun to shift out fearing the worst. The latest news is equally disconcerting: apprehending hostile moves by Pakistan, the Indian Navy has now gone on
alert. Slowly but surely, all the elements of war are falling into place.

By sending heavily armed mercenaries across the Line of Control in Kashmir and then reinforcing them with its regular troops, the Pakistani army has created a situation that is explosive and potentially cataclysmic. If General Pervez Musharraf and other senior Pakistani
generals do not quickly order their forces to pull back, there is every possibility of the conflict snowballing into something much more fearsome.

'Safe Passage'

With elections around the corner and the opposition parties accusing the BJP of being ``weak'' for not detecting and repulsing the intruders in a timely fashion, the Vajpayee government cannot afford any unilateral de-escalation such as a cessation of hostilities against forces
occupying strategic heights inside Indian territory. The torture and mutilation of Indian POWs and the taped proof of the Pakistani army's involvement in the armed intrusion across the LoC has also enraged the public and raised the political stakes. Were the defence minister to
reiterate the offer of `safe passage' he made two weeks ago, he would almost certainly be pilloried.

While there is no sign that Pakistan is willing to withdraw its forces, it is essential that India take steps to ensure the geographical scope of the conflict is not widened. There are, in particular, two dangers.

First, as the Indian army pushes ahead and clears territory on its side of the LoC, it may end up crossing into Pakistani-occupied areas on the other side. The army may do so either by mistake or because of some ill-conceived political decision to teach the Pakistani forces a lesson.
Either way, the consequences would be severe, both diplomatically as well as militarily.

Second, if the campaign to drive back the intruders does not go according to plan, there will be a great temptation to launch airstrikes at artillery positions and supply routes in the Pakistani side of the LoC. Indeed, a few defence analysts have already begun to advocate this line of action despite the obvious risks it entails. Airstrikes inside Pakistan will almost certainly invite retaliation. The Pakistani air force is likely to get involved and given the psychological impact of
aerial combat and the concomitant loss of aircraft, the drift towards war would be virtually unstoppable.

If war were to break out between India and Pakistan, the fighting will most certainly not end within the 14 days it took to conclude the 1971 war. The fact that both countries have nuclear weapons means neither side can hope militarily to defeat the other. The most likely scenario
is of a step-wise escalation in which new areas and classes of weapons will progressively be involved. The first stage might involve fighting along other parts of the LoC, the second fighting along other parts of the border. Finally, we could see the outbreak of full-fledged
hostilities.

`India Vindicated'

Of course, the longer such a war lasts, the greater will be the possibility that it will turn nuclear. Given its conventional inferiority and the fragility of its economy -- the Karachi Stock
Exchange has fallen by some 27 per cent since fighting began in Kargil -- Pakistan will find itself under immense pressure to use nuclear weapons. The greater the danger of nuclear war, the greater will be the Western efforts to intervene. After spending the better part of 50 years
railing against the `internationalisation' of the Kashmir issue, Indian officials are excited now that President Bill Clinton has asked Pakistan to withdraw its forces. ``India is vindicated'' was how the MEA put it, as if Washington's benediction is the last word.

The fact of the matter is that neither blandishments nor threats could make the US convince the Pakistani army to forgo testing its nuclear weapons last year. Notwithstanding Mr Clinton's apparent tilt towards India, there is nothing concrete the US can do to secure the withdrawal
of Pakistani forces in Kargil. Rather than basking in the seemingly benign interference of big powers, India needs to solve its problems by itself, acting all the time in a restrained and responsible manner.

U.N. Fig Leaf: Nato Compellence as Global Norm

The Times of India, June 10, 1999

UN Fig Leaf

NATO Compellence as Global Norm

By Siddharth Varadarajan

DESPITE the imposition of a peace agreement on Belgrade last week and the tabling of a draft resolution in the UN Security Council, it is still not certain how the crisis in Kosovo will finally end. After violating every principle of international law and international humanitarian law for more than nine weeks by attacking a sovereign country, bombing civilian targets and killing some 1,500 non-combatants, one-third of whom were children, NATO has definitely achieved a measure of success. And yet, the draft UN resolution is ambiguous on the precise role NATO will play in the international peacekeeping force to be sent to Kosovo. It merely calls on “member states and relevant international organisations'’ to organise the force; NATO is mentioned only in an appendix and no leadership role is assigned to it. Nevertheless, the US insists the mission will be a NATO operation through and through and Russia’s denials are sounding weaker by the hour.

Principles for Peace
How events unfold over the next few days will determine more than just the future of Kosovo and Yugoslavia. If Russia, China and other members of the Security Council capitulate and go along with a UN resolution which essentially rewards NATO for its aggression, the outlook for world order will be bleak indeed.

The US-led military alliance began its bombing campaign on March 24 with three key demands: that NATO troops be granted control over the province of Kosovo; that Yugoslav forces be withdrawn; and that substantial autonomy be granted to the Kosovo Albanians pending a referendum to decide the province’s fate three years later. When the intensive bombing — and the vengeful, criminal actions of Serb forces — led to the mass exodus of Kosovar Albanians, a fourth demand was added: that the refugees be allowed to return to their homes.

Yugoslav president Slobodan Milosevic, an authoritarian leader who had no faith in his people’s capacity to resist compellence, has now agreed to withdraw his forces from Kosovo and allow in a UN force with a “fundamental'’ NATO component and a “unified command structure''. On paper at least, he is also committed to Kosovo’s autonomy and to the return of the refugees. Still, the US refuses to suspend the bombing. So contemptuous is NATO of the UN that it has already decided the international force commander will be a British general. During the G-8 deliberations in Bonn on Monday, British foreign secretary Robin Cook also revealed his contempt for China. A G-8 drafted resolution, he said, was bound to be rubber-stamped by the Security Council.

War Crimes
If Russia and China have any regard for international law, they should insist that NATO suspend its bombing immediately and that the draft resolution on Kosovo be amended to satisfy five principles. First, the sovereignty of Yugoslavia must be respected, not just formally but substantially. Second, since Belgrade has consented to the deployment of UN troops, the mission mandate should be drawn up under Chapter VI of the UN Charter and not Chapter VII, which is inherently coercive. NATO troops entering Yugoslavia armed with sweeping Chapter VII powers could easily be a law unto themselves. The US could also use those powers to bomb Yugoslavia whenever it decides that Belgrade is not cooperating. Unfortunately, Mr Milosevic let himself be talked into allowing a Chapter VII operation and may find it difficult to change track at this stage.

Third, the mission must be politically neutral. For peacekeeping to have any meaning, peacekeepers must be fully trusted by those among whom they are supposed to keep the peace. Sending NATO troops from any of the 10 countries which are bombing Yugoslavia — or allowing NATO to command the force — would make a mockery of natural justice as well as of UN practice. Throughout the war, NATO provided logistical support — if not direct military assistance — to the Kosovo Liberation Army. How can it now be trusted to disarm the same group?

Fourth, the reference to cooperation with the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) must be rephrased so that equal and explicit cognisance is taken of both Belgrade’s operations and NATO’s bombardment. The killing of civilians is reprehensible regardless of whether the victims are Albanians or Serbs. In this, NATO leaders are as culpable as Mr Milosevic and should also be held accountable for their actions, though unfortunately ICTY chief prosecutrix Louise Arbour of Canada has refused to investigate charges that NATO has grossly violated the laws of war.

Law in the Grave
Finally, the deployment of UN peacekeepers must not be open-ended as the draft resolution currently envisages. Instead of stating that the mission would continue “unless the Security Council decides otherwise'', an explicit expiry date must be built into the resolution — as exists in the mandates for UN forces in Macedonia and Angola — so that each subsequent extension requires a fresh debate in the Security Council as well as the concurrence of its five permanent members. Not incorporating an expiry date could well lead to a replay of the tragedy in Iraq, where the lifting of the UN embargo — now in its ninth year — is being blocked by the intransigence of the US and Britain. UNSCR 687, which ended the Gulf War, only states that sanctions will be lifted when the Security Council is satisfied Iraq has fully disarmed. Thus, just one country with a veto can block the lifting of sanctions in perpetuity. Were UN troops (or NATO troops under UN cover) to enter Yugoslavia with a mandate which requires a fresh Security Council decision for them to be withdrawn, Kosovo could well be under NATO occupation for a long time to come.

If Russia and China are not prepared to stand by these principles — and there is plenty of evidence to suggest that they won’t — international brigandage will have been legitimised. When NATO launched its armed aggression against Yugoslavia, it did so conscious of the fact that the UN Security Council would not have approved its use of force. It would be ironical indeed if the Security Council were now to sanctify NATO’s actions. If after so much bloodshed and wanton destruction, all that is on offer is the current draft, it is better that there be no UN resolution at all. International law has already been bombed into its grave. A resolution dictated by NATO would be more a shroud than a fig leaf.

Kosovo war: NATO reneging on accord terms

8 June 1999
The Times of India

NEWS ANALYSIS

NATO reneging on accord terms

By Siddharth Varadarajan

NEW DELHI: The peace agreement accepted by the Yugoslav government last
week may be ambiguous in some respects, but it is explicit on
one point: the international force which enters Kosovo must be
under UN authority and must be mandated by a UN Security
Council resolution --and not by NATO.

However, Yugoslav generals who turned up for negotiations with
NATO's Lt-Gen Michael Jackson at the Yugoslav-Macedonian
border town of Blace over the weekend were presented with a
plan for rapid entry of NATO troops into Kosovo even before
any UN resolution is passed. They were told to sign on pain of an
intensification of NATO's 75-day bombing campaign.

Some NATO officials have spoken of British paratroopers taking
control of Pristina airport within hours of the first Serb troop
withdrawals. NATO has also announced that Lt-Gen Jackson is
to command the international peacekeeping force, this again
before the composition of the force is even discussed in the
Security Council.

At the `military-technical' negotiations in Blace -- which NATO
generals insisted were not negotiations but the presentation of a
de facto instrument of surrender to the Yugoslav side -- a
detailed blueprint for the withdrawal of Serb forces was handed
over. But the Russian observer present, Lt-Gen Yevgeny
Barmianchev, pointed out that there was no question of a troop
pull-out --or of entry by NATO troops -- before a UN resolution
is passed. The talks broke down and even though liaison
meetings will continue at a lower level, the action has now shifted
to the political level.

Foreign ministers from the G-7 countries and Russia are meeting
in Bonn to draft an appropriate UN resolution. Despite the
centrality of the UN in the agreement Belgrade signed on to,
NATO evidently wants little more than official UN endorsement
for its original demands. As opposition in Russia mounts to the
terms of last week's deal, Prime Minister Sergei Stepashin has
publicly disowned his government's envoy, Viktor Chernomyrdin,
for granting too many concessions to NATO.

En route to Bonn, British foreign secretary Robin Cook said:
``We will know today to what extent Russia is willing to work
with us to give us the UN resolution that would give the authority
of the UN to the package we have negotiated''.

But NATO will have to do more than persuade Russia to cooperate. China
has all along insisted that the bombing must stop before any resolution
is discussed in the Security Council. And if Russia continues to insist
that a resolution must precede the entry of NATO troops into Kosovo,
then something will have to give. NATO will either have to stop the
bombing or bring the requisite pressure to bear on both Moscow and
Beijing. The next few days will clearly be crucial.

With the Dark Lord in a Darkened City

The Times of India, June 6, 1999


With The Dark Lord In A Darkened City

By Siddharth Varadarajan

BELGRADE: Set in a modest house on a quiet street overlooking the Danube - that Yamuna of the Balkans - the Hare Krishna temple is an oasis of meditative calm, a limpid pool in which the traumas of war effortlessly dissolve. Bombs may be falling all around but the bhakts are tranquil, seeing in this madness and destruction only confirmation of the certitudes of karma.

Every evening, before small statues of the Dark Lord, a handful of Yugoslav devotees sway rapturously on a polished parquet floor. There is no electricity but the pujari, a young Serb woman, blows a conch shell triumphantly while a stunning, life-sized statue of Swami Bhaktivedanta Prabhupada, founder of the Krishna Consciousness movement, looks down sternly from a sofa.

If Yugoslavia is the Kurukshetra of the New World Order, I thought, what could be more appropriate than Serbian bhakts dancing to the name of Krishna?

Bhakti Grantha Das, the temple's 28-year-old Serb president, says there is a spiritual void in the country. "Many people are atheists and they ask, "If God exists, why does he allow us to be bombed?" But this war has increased our devotion to Krishna." I asked him why war broke out. "When people are sinful," he answered, "they get punishment." So is this war divine retribution? "Of course. So many animals have been killed here," he replied serenely. Seeing that I was not convinced, he added: "A Serb always thinks, "I am a Serb, he is Albanian, hence he is my enemy". And an Albanian feels the same towards Serbs. This is out of ignorance. If we realised we are all part of God, we would resolve our problems." And what about the NATO leaders? Would they be punished for bombing civilians? "Everybody who is doing impious actions - Clinton, Milosevic, you, me - will have to suffer. The Law of Karma is the only law that you cannot cheat," he said.

What would he do if the Yugoslav authorities tried to draft him into the military, I wondered. "The Vedas," he said, "prescribe the four-fold division of society into Brahmins, Kshatriyas, Vaishyas and Shudras. I have had my Brahmin initiation and Brahmins do not go to war. Their role is to provide spiritual leadership." "On the other hand," he said, "some of our devotees have a Kshatriya nature, and they have gone to war." But surely Milosevic was unlikely to be impressed by this argument? Bhakti Grantha Das conceded that I had a point. "We shall then argue that Brahmins who live in temples are like monks who live in monasteries. And nobody sends monks to the battlefield."

I asked him whether the war would make more Yugoslavs turn to Krishna. "A famous Serbian soothsayer of the previous century had in fact predicted the Hare Krishna movement," he replied. Mitar Tarabich - whose book Kremasko Prorochanstvo, or Kreman's Prophecy, "predicted" Tito, the birth of Yugoslavia, its subsequent collapse, the present war, everything - had also written a cryptic passage about a "small man from the orient"who would come with the "message of truth". Tarabich had added that not everyone would accept this man's word and that his followers would be small in number, although eventually the truth would prevail. "We are convinced that this "small man from the Orient' was Prabhupada," said Bhakti Grantha Das with pride. "And since we are quite a small group, only some 200 in the whole of Yugoslavia, that part of the prediction is also correct."

Bhakti Grantha Das can't wait for the rest of the prophecy to come true. "We would like this war to end so that we can go back to our work of distributing books," he said. "The Swami taught us that only by distributing his books in large numbers can we avert World War III." He quoted a stanza from the Gita about war and hate in flawless but accented Sanskrit. One of the devotees, Aneta, had a beatific look on her face. An Orthodox Church down the road started ringing its bell. "In the Vedas," said Das, "it is written that the ringing of bells satisfies Lord Vishnu. That is why we say that even they are honouring Krishna." Aneta, the beatific one, asked me hesitatingly: "India is punya bhoomi. Do they know about Krishna? Is everyone religious?" I said yes but I was not very convincing. Prasad was served - a Yugoslav savoury of some kind - along with delicious strawberry lassi. I drained my stainless steel tumbler and a devotee ladled some more. The prayers were starting. The pujarin was blowing her shankha. It was time to leave.

War ravages Belgrade's Bengal tiger

The Times of India, June 3, 1999

War ravages Belgrade's Bengal Tiger

By Siddharth Varadarajan

BELGRADE — The day after NATO's bombs first roared menacingly in Belgrade, Prince, the local zoo’s favourite Bengal tiger, became so traumatised he started eating his legs.

Belgrade Zoo tiger by Sue Coe,1999

Other animals reacted to the bombardment and air-raid warnings with similarly destructive pathologies.A lion aborted, as did the constrictor, zebu and zebra. A tigress smothered her four-day-old cubs, devouring two of them. Both the Canadian and European she-wolves killed and ate their offspring. Many birds, including a mother owl, also killed their young.

Vuk Bojovic, manager of the Belgrade Zoo, has never experienced anything like this. A balding but bushy-haired man, he throws his hands in the air as he describes what is happening to the animals. “It is horrible. There is no water or electricity for days on end. We cannot change the animals’ water. Their meat is getting spoilt.”

However, it is the infanticide and cannibalism that really disturb him. “Because of the noise of explosions, these animals have an inkling of impending doom. They see that there is no future for their offspring.” Whenever the city is bombed or the sirens sound, the animals howl — a “concert of screams” is how one zoo worker described it — while the birds fall completely silent.

Slobodan, a pilot and volunteer at the zoo, wanted me to write about Prince. “After he was born, I took him to my apartment and brought him up,” he said. “We went for walks in Belgrade and for rides in my motor boat. He had such a good nature. But now..."

We went to the shed where Prince was being kept in isolation. Slobodan stroked the tiger’s face through the bars of the small cage in which he now lives, whispering endearments in Serbian. Prince, who is enormous, twisted in pleasure. The ends of his rear legs were a hideous red, the flesh exposed.

The zoo has tried everything to stop him but every time they put a bandage he would rip it off. “I think it is his protest against the bombing” said Slobodan, his eyes misting over. He quickly put on his dark glasses and motioned that we should leave.

As we left, Prince roared in a way that I had never heard a tiger roar before. I have seen many tragedies that this war has caused. But what broke my heart was the sight of Prince, my proud compatriot, born and nurtured in a foreign land, now reduced to gnawing at his flesh because he cannot cope with the savagery of a conflict more ferocious than any beast of prey.

It is the one image of this insane war that will stay with me forever.

Belgrade Diary: As bombs fall, hope, despair, and some humour

June 2, 1999
The Times of India

Belgrade Diary

As bombs fall, hope, despair, humour

By Siddharth Varadarajan

BELGRADE: As NATO bombs different locations around the city, people here must
make calculations about whether to move out of their apartments or
stay on in the hope that the bombers will target some other place next.
Though the targeting is generally very precise, no one wants to be
around when the odd bomb goes astray. Everyone makes their own
probabilistic calculations and what is an acceptable degree of risk
for one may be unacceptable for another. Bosko Lakic, an independent
filmmaker, moved out of his apartment after a nearby heating plant
was flattened. He moved into his girlfriend's flat near the Pancevo
bridge -- the last spanning the Danube anywhere in Yugoslavia --
where he reckons he will be safe till NATO begins a ground invasion.
Then, he fears, the Pancevo bridge will be bombed and he will move
to his old flat before that happens. Meanwhile, his flat is being
occupied by a friend who lived close to the Chinese embassy and
Hotel Yugoslavia, both of which were blasted by NATO missiles three
weeks ago. He lost all his windows that night and fears the studio
of BK television, which is next door, will be bombed next. So even
though Bosko considers his own flat dangerous, his friend thinks of
it as a safe haven.

***

Thinking the hotel where I was staying to be too dangerous, Prof Sima
Avramovic of the Belgrade law school arranged for me to stay in
the faculty guest house. One day later, he phoned me in a panic.
He had heard that a neighbouring hotel, the Metropol, was likely
to be targeted. The hotel was empty and NATO might have suspected
it was being used by the government. The windows of the guest
house directly overlook the hotel and Prof Avramovic was extremely
worried. ``You must move out immediately'', he said. So I fled to the
Hotel Moskva. In the morning, I discovered there was no electricity
or water. The Hotel Prague down the street also did not have power
but at least it had water, so I moved there. Finally, the Prague
also ran out of water so I moved back to the law faculty. However,
I slept fitfully every night, making sure to draw the curtains so
that I wouldn't be hit by flying glass. Some protection. According
to latest reports, the Hotel Metropol is still standing.

***

Compared to the crisis in Iraq, which I covered for The
Times of India last February, the war in Yugoslavia presents
a different set of problems for the foreign correspondent. In
Iraq, telecommunications was a major problem. Thanks to the
crippling UN embargo, it was extremely expensive to send an
international fax. With the Internet outlawed by Iraq, there was
no question of using e-mail. Belgrade, on the other hand, is
easily the most cyber-friendly city in the Balkans. Apart from
cybercafes and university terminals, the military press centre
-- where every foreign reporter must be registered -- has
computers connected to the Internet. However, power breakdowns
are a major problem. With NATO targeting power plants, the
city can be without electricity for as long as 48 hours. My
first night of darkness, I lit a candle and tried writing by
hand. Then I discovered that the press centre runs a generator.
All one had to do is go there, plug in one's laptop, fortify
oneself with some plum brandy, and type.

***

The BBC's man in Belgrade, John Simpson, is a controversial
character. His initial reports were so balanced that British
officials publicly questioned his patriotism. Then, he began to
censor himself. Last week, he got to experience first-hand what
it means to be a hospital patient in a country that is being
bombed around the clock. Simpson slipped and fell in his hotel
bathroom, tore a tendon in his thigh and was brought to the Clinical
Centre of Belgrade for emergency surgery. The operation was
successful but soon after, the hospital was plunged into darkness.
Simpson subsequently wrote that he felt fearful as he lay in his
hospital bed but that he coped with his ordeal with fortitude.
The doctors there, however, tell a different story. According
to Dr Bora Dubic, the chief surgeon, what happened was that at
3 am, when an air raid warning signalled a new round of bombardment,
Simpson became nervous and agitated and asked that he be moved to
the Hyatt hotel. ``They are hitting hospitals these days'', he
said. ``Only the Hyatt is safe''. The Hyatt, as an American-owned
hotel, is considered the safest spot in Belgrade. All foreign
journalists -- or at least those who can afford its $185 a day
tariff -- stay there. Mr Simpson, of course, was in no condition
to be moved. The person who told me the story said he had nothing
against the BBC but hoped Simpson's experience would provide for
more objective reporting.

***

Every day, new jokes go into circulation. The presidents of
Serbia, Russia and Belarus meet to decide on the name of their
new confederation. ``Of course it should be Serbia'', said Mr
Slobodan Milosevic. ``S for Serbia, R for Russia, B for Belarus,
EE YA''. Ee ya in Serbian means ``and me''. And then there
is this tragic one: A Serb boy and his American friend are arguing.
``You people have no history'' says the Serb proudly. ``Yes, but
soon you will have no geography'' replies the American.

***

One of the people I wanted to meet in Belgrade was the Serbian
poet Stefan Raickovic. The Times of India had printed a moving
article by him about a phone call of support he received from
his son's Japanese mother-in-law in Hiroshima. From one bombed
city to another, that phone call in which only a few words of Serbian
and Japanese were exchanged by people who had no language in
common had filled Raickovic with immense gratitude and hope.
We met in a restaurant over a cup of strong Turkish coffee and
talked for more than an hour. Grey haired and noble, and smoking
far too many cigarettes than is good for him, the poet said NATO
was waging a war against civilisation and humanity. ``My son lives
in New York'', he said, ``and I told him when the bombing started
that I would never come there to visit.'' ``I am a poet and I
really love New York'', he said `` but I think I will never go
there again''. Raickovic is 70 and remembers the Nazi bombing of
Belgrade. I asked him which was worse. ``You know the difference?
They killed more people but we were not so alone then. Now we are.
We have verbal friends. Russia, China, India. Others. So many
Nobel laureates, poets, writers support us. But they cannot go
beyond the verbal...So here we are, small and suffering. But
in the future, I know that people will look back on our resistance
with pride''.

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